The latest UN’s World Population Prospects suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s.
- The population is expected to remain at that level until 2100. The report was released by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).
- However, the report, also notes that the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen to less that one per cent in 2020.
- Fertility has fallen markedly in recent decades for many countries: today, two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, roughly the level required for zero growth in the long run, for a population with low mortality.
- In 61 countries or areas, the population is expected to decrease by at least one per cent over the next three decades, as a result of sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration.
- The COVID-19 pandemic has had an effect on population change: global life expectancy at birth fell to 71 years in 2021 (down from 72.9 in 2019) and, in some countries, successive waves of the pandemic may have produced short-term reductions in numbers of pregnancies and births.
- The UN report has said that India will surpass China as the most populous country on earth in 2023.
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