The long-standing Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has undergone a dramatic shift in recent days. After years of stalemate, the situation has culminated in the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Timeline of Recent Events
- 27 November 2024: Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise offensive against Assad’s forces.
- 29 November 2024: The rebels captured the strategic city of Aleppo, a turning point in the conflict.
- 6 December 2024: The city of Hama fell to the rebels.
- 8 December 2024: President Bashar al-Assad fled the country as Damascus was captured by the HTS, effectively ending the Assad family’s 54-year rule over Syria.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): An Overview
- Leadership: HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a 42-year-old Islamist militant seen as pivotal in recent successes.
- Origins:
- Founded in 2011 as Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda.
- In 2016, it rebranded as Jabhat Fateh al-Shaam (JFS), breaking ties with al-Qaeda to consolidate its influence in the Syrian conflict.
- Later evolved into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, focusing on establishing control in northwestern Syria, particularly in Idlib.
- Goals: HTS aims for the liberation of Shaam (the Levant), a region comprising Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, and Palestine.
Significance of Recent Developments
- End of Assad Rule: The downfall of Bashar al-Assad, who had been in power since 2000 and succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad, marks the end of decades-long authoritarian control in Syria.
- Strategic Gains for HTS: The group’s recent victories, including control over major cities like Aleppo and Damascus, signify its dominance in the Syrian conflict.
- Potential Implications:
- The rise of HTS, an Islamist faction with roots in al-Qaeda, raises concerns about regional stability and international security.
- The fall of Assad could create a power vacuum, possibly intensifying the geopolitical contest among external powers like Russia, the U.S., Turkey, and Iran.
