According to a new study published in Nature Communications, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then.
- This event is sometimes called a “blue ocean event” and defined as when the sea ice area drops below 1 million sq kms.
- Predictions of an ice-free Arctic Ocean have a long and complicated history, and the 2030s is sooner than most scientists had thought possible (though it is later than some had wrongly forecast).
- What we know for sure is the disappearance of sea ice at the top of the world would not only be an emblematic sign of climate breakdown, but it would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences.
- The Arctic has been experiencing climate heating faster than any other part of the planet.
- The eyes of many scientists and local indigenous people have been on the sea ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean in winter. This thin film of frozen seawater expands and contracts with the seasons, reaching a minimum area in September each year.
- The ice which remains at the end of summer is called multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart.
- It acts as barrier to the transfer of both moisture and heat between the ocean and atmosphere.
- Arctic sea ice is an important component of the climate system. As it dramatically reduces the amount of sunlight absorbed by the ocean, removing this ice is predicted to further accelerate warming, through a process known as a positive feedback. This, in turn, will make the Greenland ice sheet melt faster, which is already a major contributor to sea level rise.
- The loss of sea ice in summer would also mean changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks, and fundamental shifts in ocean biological activity.
- These are just some of the highly undesirable consequences and it is fair to say that the disadvantages will far outweigh the slender benefits.
